Polls say Joe McElderry to win the X Factor

As we saw last weekend, buzz isn’t enough to predict the winner – there’s something good going for each of the contestants, so which one is the best prediction?

Olly Murs has had the most buzz since 10 October and during the week leading up to this weekend’s final.

buzz3

Source: Brandwatch

Stacey Solomon has the most fans on Facebook.

fb

Source: Sum of Facebook pages with 100 or more fans

Joe is winning in the polls.

Forums on the Daily Mail, Digital Spy, Entertainment.stv.tv, PopSugar, StudentRoom and UnRealityTV forums all agree that Joe will win.

studentroom

StudentRoom forums

entstv

Entertainment.stv.tv

digitalspy

DigitalSpy forums

So what’s the best predictor of who will win?

Buzz gave some indication of who would be voted off earlier on, but now that it’s down to the last three, buzz isn’t reliable enough. Stacey has a lot of Facebook fans, but it could just be her personality giving her fans. Polls are the closest to the actual vote, so I’m willing to bet that Joe will win this weekend.

Who do you think will win?


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posted: December 12th, 2009 | by: Michelle | perma: link | tags: , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

3 Comments on “Polls say Joe McElderry to win the X Factor”

  1. #1 Lindsey Mountford said at 4:02 pm on December 17th, 2009:

    Well done!

    Might be interesting to reconcile all the buzz data you’ve collected and compare to the official voting stats:

    http://xfactor.itv.com/_uploads/documents/091213_votestats.pdf

  2. #2 Michelle said at 8:25 pm on December 17th, 2009:

    Great idea! I might just do that. Stay tuned…

  3. #3 Michelle said at 6:04 pm on January 25th, 2010:

    I’ve had a closer look at the voting stats and buzz, and it’s really difficult to find a useful correlation. Joe McElderry seemed to keep his head down in terms of buzz right up until the last few shows, while Danyl Johnson had varying buzz levels each time and Jedward shot out the roof. Without a good sense of overall sentiment, the buzz isn’t a useful predictor of voting numbers.

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